Global LED lamp market ‘set to fall’, says report

The market for LED lamps will start to contract in coming years due to the light source’s long life, a report has claimed.

As more LED lamps are installed the smaller the market will become, says IMS Research.
The forecasted growth rate for LED lamp shipments from 2009 to 2015 is 97 per cent, while the growth rate from 2015 to 2020 will slow to 13 per cent. The tipping point will come in 2018, when the market will start to contract.
By 2013 the quick adoption of the technology will lead to LEDs accounting for 40 per cent of the total lamp market.
By 2015, LEDs are expected to be producing more than 180 lumens per watt and will be displacing fluorescent.
The report’s authors warn that early adoption of the technology is essential in order for manufacturers to profit in the LED lamp market and that vertical integration will also be required. By being vertically integrated, manufacturers will be better positioned to reduce their selling price.
Approximately 60 per cent of the market belongs to the big three, Philips, Osram and GE but IMS research says that the latter’s lack of an LED production facility could count against it.
Additionally, it notes that companies like Samsung, Toshiba and LG have been pushing hard into the global LED lamp market and it predicts that the current ‘Big Three’ lamp makers will become the big five.

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