The market for LED lamps will start to contract in coming years because the light source have such long lives, according to a report from IMS Research
The forecast growth rate for LED lamp shipments from 2009 to 2015 is 97 per cent, but the growth rate from 2015 to 2020 will be 13 per cent, says the report. The tipping point will come in 2018, after which the market will contract.
By 2013, LEDs will represent 40 per cent of the lamp market. By 2015, they are expected to produce more than 180 lumens per watt and will start to displace fluorescent sources.
The report’s authors also believe that vertical integration is essential. Integrated manufacturers will be better positioned to cut their selling prices.
IMS notes that companies such as Samsung, Toshiba and LG have been pushing into the global LED lamp market and it predicts the Big Three lamp makers will become the Big Five.
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Philips Lighting put the recession behind it in the third quarter of last year, producing a growth in sales of 16 per cent. Sales at Philips Lighting in the period reached £1.66 billion, up from £1.43 billion in the same period the year before.
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LED specialist Dialight doubled its profits in 2010 and saw sales rise by 28 per cent.